U.S. stock futures demonstrated varied performance on Thursday, following a downturn on Wednesday. Market participants are keenly awaiting new economic data and pronouncements from Federal Reserve officials, which could significantly influence monetary policy. Amidst this, the upcoming earnings report from Costco is drawing considerable attention from investors. Current market sentiment, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch tool, points to a strong likelihood of an interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in October.
Market Anticipation: Fed Remarks, Economic Data, and Corporate Earnings
On Thursday, September 25, 2025, U.S. stock futures exhibited a mixed trend, showing slight fluctuations across major indices, a day after Wednesday's general decline. The financial markets maintained a state of anticipation as investors prepared for the release of crucial weekly jobless claims data. This information is considered vital for understanding the current economic landscape and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary decisions. Further intensifying this focus were scheduled speeches by several regional Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed), John Williams (New York Fed), Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed), Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair), Michael Barr (Fed Governor), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed), and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed). These officials were expected to offer their perspectives on the economy and future policy directions throughout the day, beginning at 8:20 a.m. ET and concluding at 3:30 p.m. ET. Additionally, a series of economic reports were released at 8:30 a.m. ET, encompassing the final Q2 GDP estimate, August's advanced trade balance in goods, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, and durable-goods orders. August's existing home sales data was also released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Bond markets showed the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.139% and the two-year bond at 3.604%. Projections from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated a 91.9% probability of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut in its October meeting. Shares of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which mirror the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, remained largely unchanged in pre-market trading. The previous session on Wednesday saw most S&P 500 sectors, particularly materials, real estate, and communications, experiencing losses, while energy, utilities, and consumer discretionary sectors registered modest gains. The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all closed lower. Notably, Intel Corp. (INTC) saw a significant 6.41% surge following reports of potential investment from Apple Inc. (AAPL) as part of its revitalization strategy. New Home Sales data on Wednesday significantly exceeded expectations, reaching 800,000 units, well above the forecasted 649,000 and the previous quarter's 664,000. Analyst Mike Zaccardi observed that individual investor sentiment, as gauged by the American Association of Individual Investors, remained predominantly bullish, akin to the prior week, with 41.7% expressing bullish views, 19.1% neutral, and 39.2% bearish. A smaller segment, 27%, believed a recession was more likely by the end of the fiscal year, though the majority still deemed it improbable. Several companies were in the spotlight for their earnings reports: Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) showed a slight increase of 0.43% pre-market ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings release after market close. Accenture PLC (ACN) was flat pre-market before its third-quarter results. Jabil Inc. (JBL), a manufacturing firm, gained 2.31% pre-market ahead of its fourth-quarter results. TD Synnex Corp. (SNX) climbed 2.43% pre-market, also anticipating its fourth-quarter earnings. Carmax Inc. (KMX) saw a 2% rise pre-market ahead of its second-quarter figures. In commodity markets, crude oil futures declined by 0.46% to approximately $64.69 per barrel in early New York trading. Gold Spot US Dollar increased by 0.59% to about $3,756.88 per ounce, nearing its record high of $3,788.33. The U.S. Dollar Index spot dipped by 0.08% to 97.7833. Globally, most Asian markets, excluding Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, were down, as were European markets in early trading.
This market activity underscores the ongoing sensitivity of global financial markets to central bank communications and key economic indicators. Investors are clearly attempting to gauge the Federal Reserve's next moves, with jobless claims and official statements providing critical clues. The performance of major retailers like Costco, alongside technology and manufacturing giants, offers insight into the broader economic health and corporate resilience in a period of shifting monetary policy expectations. The mixed reactions across international markets also highlight the interconnectedness of global economies and the diverse impacts of these financial developments.