Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund LLC, predicts a short-term upswing for Tesla's stock, expecting it to climb through the third quarter of 2025. This optimism is fueled by anticipated strong Q3 delivery figures. However, Black forecasts a downturn in the fourth quarter, attributing this to a new, more budget-friendly Tesla model potentially falling short of expectations and a projected decrease in vehicle deliveries. These market predictions arrive as Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, reasserts his dedication to the company, particularly focusing on its Optimus robots, AI advancements, and vehicle production. Concurrently, Tesla faces challenges including a high-profile departure from its Optimus AI team and regulatory scrutiny over its electronic door handles, prompting a redesign to address safety concerns in both the U.S. and China.
Gary Black's market outlook, shared recently on social media, indicates that Tesla (TSLA) stock is poised for an upward trajectory leading up to September 30, 2025. This surge is largely attributed to traders factoring in a strong third-quarter delivery performance, with Black's firm forecasting 470,000 deliveries, significantly above the Wall Street consensus of 433,000. Black, despite being a long-term investor, expressed his firm's current hesitance to acquire more TSLA shares, awaiting a more favorable risk-adjusted return. His prior statements have consistently highlighted an expectation for robust Q3 sales for the electric vehicle manufacturer.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Black anticipates a reversal in Tesla's stock fortunes. He projects a 10-12% decrease in deliveries, primarily linked to the potential underperformance of a new, more accessible model. This forecast introduces a cautious note to an otherwise positive short-term outlook, suggesting that the enthusiasm generated by Q3 results might not sustain into the year's end.
In parallel, Elon Musk has publicly reinforced his unwavering commitment to Tesla and his other ventures, providing a glimpse into his demanding schedule. His immediate priorities include the development of Tesla's Optimus robot line, advancements in artificial intelligence, and the continuous improvement of vehicle manufacturing. This reaffirmation comes at a critical time, as Tesla has recently experienced a series of significant talent departures, including Ashish Kumar, the lead of the Optimus AI team, who has moved to Meta Platforms Inc. These exits underscore ongoing human resources challenges within the company.
Furthermore, Tesla is addressing critical safety issues with its electronic door handles. The company has announced plans for a redesign after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) launched an investigation into potential safety risks. Reports suggest that these handles could trap occupants, particularly children, inside vehicles during power failures. This investigation is compounded by similar concerns from Chinese authorities, who are considering a ban on flush door handles in all new cars by July 2027, citing safety implications. Tesla's proactive redesign initiative is a direct response to these growing regulatory and public safety pressures.
Amidst these developments, Tesla's stock performance continues to be a subject of intense scrutiny. While the company demonstrates strong momentum and growth, it registers only satisfactory quality and poor value in market analyses. The upcoming quarters will test Tesla's ability to navigate market expectations, talent retention challenges, and regulatory hurdles, all while striving to maintain its innovative edge and deliver on its ambitious product roadmap.