Analysts are closely monitoring the strong demand for Apple's latest smartphone, the iPhone 17, as indicated by extended lead times. This trend suggests a positive outlook for Apple Inc.'s stock performance in the coming fiscal year. Despite a potential minor shortfall in iPhone sales for the fourth quarter, market experts anticipate a significant rebound in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, driven by sustained consumer interest in the new device. This continued strong demand is expected to contribute to healthy revenue growth for the iPhone lineup in fiscal year 2026, surpassing current market projections.
Gene Munster, a managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, has been diligently tracking the lead times for the iPhone 17. His analysis, shared in a recent blog post, reveals that waiting periods for the new device are notably longer compared to its predecessor, the iPhone 16, at a similar stage post-launch. Specifically, three weeks after its release, the iPhone 17's global lead times across eight countries averaged 2.29 weeks, a 13% increase over the iPhone 16's 2.02 weeks during the same period. This data strongly supports the optimistic forecast for the device's sales performance.
Apple's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for October 30, will provide an initial, albeit minimal, glimpse into the iPhone 17's impact. However, the true financial benefits from the heightened demand are projected to materialize more fully in the subsequent fiscal year. Munster's projections suggest a modest 9% growth in iPhone sales for the fourth quarter, slightly below the informal market expectation of 10%. Nevertheless, he anticipates that the robust sales figures from the first quarter of the next fiscal year will significantly outweigh any potential Q4 underperformance.
Munster foresees iPhone revenue growth exceeding 10% in the first fiscal quarter, surpassing the whispered 9% expectation. Looking further ahead, he projects that Apple's iPhone revenue for fiscal year 2026 could see an increase of over 8%, a figure that comfortably exceeds the current market consensus of 5%. This sustained growth is largely attributed to the strong initial demand observed through the extended lead times, signaling a promising period for Apple's smartphone division.
The strong consumer interest and extended delivery times for the iPhone 17 signal a period of significant growth for Apple. Analysts are optimistic that, following the minimal impact on the current quarter's earnings, the full effect of this demand will be evident in the next fiscal year, pushing iPhone revenue growth beyond initial expectations and reinforcing the company's market position.