This analysis provides a detailed examination of global oil production figures, focusing particularly on the output from the leading 11 non-OPEC oil-producing countries. The report reveals a marginal decline in worldwide oil production during May, with an anticipated rebound and sustained growth projected for both the global market (excluding the U.S.) and non-OPEC nations from mid-2025 to the end of 2026. These insights are critical for understanding the current state and future trajectory of the international oil supply chain.
In May, global oil production experienced a slight decrease of 6 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), bringing the total to 83,305 kb/d. This minor adjustment reflects the dynamic nature of the energy sector, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors. Despite this short-term dip, the outlook for future production suggests a period of growth.
Looking ahead, projections indicate a notable increase in world oil production outside of the United States. From June 2025 to December 2026, a total increase of 959 kb/d is expected. This growth is largely driven by non-OPEC countries, which are forecast to contribute an additional 1,166 kb/d to the global supply during the same period. These figures underscore the increasing importance of non-OPEC nations in meeting future energy demands and stabilizing the international oil market.
The analysis further delves into the specifics of these top non-OPEC producers, examining their individual contributions and growth potential. Factors such as new discoveries, technological advancements, and policy changes within these countries are considered to provide a comprehensive picture of their roles in the evolving global energy landscape. The interplay between OPEC and non-OPEC production remains a key determinant of oil prices and market stability.
The recent dip in May's global oil output is merely a blip in the broader trend of expanding production. Forecasts for the period spanning June 2025 to December 2026 point towards a substantial augmentation in oil supply, particularly from non-OPEC nations, highlighting their growing influence on the world energy stage.