In recent market movements, major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a period of consolidation, trading within a narrow range. Concurrently, XRP has seen a downward trend. These developments unfold against a backdrop of increasing investor confidence regarding a potential interest rate reduction in December. Despite the positive momentum observed in the broader stock market, the cryptocurrency sector is characterized by an pervasive sentiment of "extreme fear." Market analysts are forecasting a possible decline in Bitcoin's value to as low as $79,000 and anticipate that a significant altcoin rally, or "altseason," is unlikely to commence before early 2026, primarily due to a lack of circulating capital within the market.
On a recent Tuesday, leading digital currencies exhibited stable trading patterns, contrasting with the upward trajectory of the stock market. This divergence occurred as investors showed increasing confidence in the likelihood of an interest rate cut by December. Bitcoin hovered between $86,000 and $88,450, reflecting a period of equilibrium following its recent gains, with a notable 11% reduction in trading volume over the past 24 hours. Ethereum similarly consolidated its recent advances, struggling to surpass the $3,000 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance slightly decreased to below 58%, and Ethereum's market share fell to 11.8%.
Further impacting the crypto landscape, shares of Strategy Inc., a prominent Bitcoin holding company, experienced a 3.83% drop during regular trading. The broader cryptocurrency market witnessed significant liquidations, exceeding $300 million within a day, with both long and short positions being nearly eradicated. Bitcoin's open interest also declined by 0.51%, aligning with the spot price dip. The prevailing market sentiment, as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, remained one of "Extreme Fear."
Adding to the cautious outlook, analysts from cryptocurrency firm B2BINPAY expressed skepticism about an imminent altcoin season, deeming its chances before year-end as "very small." They noted a lack of liquidity rotation and stated that Bitcoin's dominance has remained between 58% and 61% since early October, suggesting capital is in a "storage mode." These analysts project early 2026 as the earliest "base case" for the altseason to begin. Renowned crypto analyst Michaël van de identified $85,500 as a critical support level for Bitcoin, warning that a breach could lead to a retest of the $80,800-$82,000 range. Conversely, holding this level could see Bitcoin target $90,000-$92,000 in the coming days. Another respected researcher, Ali Martinez, identified a bearish flag pattern on Bitcoin's 1-hour chart, hinting at a potential fall to $79,000, a pattern that typically signals the continuation of a strong downtrend.
In summary, the cryptocurrency market is navigating a complex period marked by consolidation in key assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, coupled with a dip in XRP. This is occurring amid broader economic optimism for interest rate adjustments but a prevailing "extreme fear" within the crypto community. Expert analysis points to potential downward pressure on Bitcoin and a delayed start to the altcoin season, emphasizing a need for careful observation by market participants.