Despite a recent surge that saw Bitcoin recover to approximately $87,000, a notable market observer, Trader Mayne, advises against premature bullishness. He points out that while the cryptocurrency's weekly performance, closing within a fair value gap, offers a significant short-term positive indicator, the overarching market sentiment continues to be bearish across daily, weekly, and even four-hour charts. This analysis suggests that any upward movement might be a temporary relief rather than a sustained recovery, urging traders to remain vigilant and not get carried away by fleeting gains.
Trader Mayne's assessment highlights a critical distinction between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. He cautions against overreliance on monthly charts, which often reflect bearish reversals only after substantial corrections have occurred. Instead, he advocates for scrutinizing lower timeframes for more immediate and reliable confirmations of market direction. Currently, only the one-hour chart shows a legitimate bullish structural shift, underscoring the fragility of the current rebound. For a genuine reversal, Bitcoin would need to firmly re-establish its position above its yearly opening price; otherwise, any rallies risk merely forming lower highs within a declining trend.
Looking ahead to the end of the year, Mayne proposes two primary trajectories for Bitcoin. The most probable scenario involves a relief rally targeting the $100,000 mark, which would represent a lower high. This would offer investors strategic opportunities to de-risk their positions before a potential market downturn extending into 2026. A less likely outcome, he notes, would be the establishment of a new all-time high, a prospect he views as improbable given the existing structural weaknesses in the weekly market. This indicates a cautious outlook, prioritizing risk management over aggressive speculation.
Contributing to the possibility of a temporary rally are certain macroeconomic indicators. The rejection of resistance by USDT dominance and the potential peaking of the DXY (US Dollar Index) are historically correlated with periods of relief in the cryptocurrency market. Should Bitcoin successfully reclaim its yearly open, the path to $100,000 could materialize, potentially boosting other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana, along with the broader altcoin market. However, Mayne emphasizes that until Bitcoin demonstrates decisive leadership, the upside potential for altcoins will likely remain constrained, reinforcing the need for prudence in trading decisions.