A prominent financial analyst has issued a stark forecast for Tesla's stock performance, predicting a significant downturn by 2026. This analyst, Gordon Johnson, has expressed strong doubts about the ambitious claims surrounding the automaker's autonomous driving technology and its humanoid robot project, Optimus. His assessment stands in contrast to the company's continuous promotion of its self-driving advancements and positive remarks from some investors, highlighting a clear divide in opinions regarding Tesla's future trajectory and the feasibility of its cutting-edge innovations.
Gordon Johnson, a respected Wall Street analyst, recently shared his pessimistic outlook for Tesla, forecasting a dramatic fall in its stock price to under $30 per share by 2026. This bold prediction was made in response to a social media post suggesting Tesla's stock would reach $3,000. Johnson was particularly critical of the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, which he unflatteringly referred to as a 'glorified taxi' and 'vaporware' due to the continued necessity of a human driver. He also dismissed the potential for sales of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots, suggesting they would generate zero revenue. Johnson's critique extended to CEO Elon Musk, stating that the public would grow 'sick/tired' of his unfulfilled pledges.
Despite Johnson's bearish stance, Tesla has consistently promoted its advancements in autonomous technology. George Bahadue, the company's Head of Business Development, emphasized that Tesla is developing a comprehensive, end-to-end autonomous driving system, differentiating it from competitors like Waymo, an Alphabet Inc. subsidiary, which requires external vehicle integration. Elon Musk himself has frequently touted Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities, asserting that the technology could proliferate more rapidly than any other, even amid an ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) affecting millions of Tesla vehicles.
Conversely, some investors maintain a positive perspective on Tesla's progress. Gary Black, managing director of Future Fund LLC, lauded the recent V14 update to Tesla's FSD system. He described it as a substantial improvement over previous iterations, particularly noting the enhanced miles-per-critical-disengagement figure, which indicates better safety and reliability. Black's endorsement highlights the diverse range of opinions within the investment community regarding Tesla's technological achievements and future prospects.
The conflicting views from industry analysts and investors underscore the complex and often contentious debate surrounding Tesla's valuation and technological promises. While some see immense potential in its innovations, others remain skeptical, citing past unfulfilled predictions and current operational challenges. The future performance of Tesla's stock and the ultimate success of its autonomous and robotics projects will depend on its ability to overcome these criticisms and deliver on its ambitious vision.